• So long as Stannis, his queen, or his men continue to support fanatic R'hllorism, he can never hold the North, IMO. Even White Harbor would be wary, for the Seven are kindling for R'hllor’s fires, same as the old gods, and many of Manderly’s people have no doubt taken up the religion of the First Men in the thousand years since they sought refuge with the Starks.

As for Stannis’s second stumbling block, one striking aspect of Westeros’s history post-Conquest is how isolationist the North remains until Robert’s Rebellion and afterwards. Though officially part of the realm and subject to the authority of the Iron Throne, unofficially, the Starks are still kings in all but name. The number of Targaryens known to have ventured north of the Neck in the past three hundred years can be counted on one hand: 1-2) King Jaehaerys, the first of his name, with his wife Good Queen Alysanne, their dragons, and half the court; 3) Egg while squiring for Dunk in the upcoming novella “The She-Wolves of Winterfell”; 4-5) Maester Aemon, escorted by Bloodraven, both to take the black. Even Robert never visits except in AGOT and nine years prior to quell Balon Greyjoy’s revolt.

While whoever sits the Iron Throne stays in King’s Landing, the whole realm’s fine playing along with the polite fiction that the North doesn’t effectively run itself from Winterfell. I suspect, though, that Stannis, unbending as he is in demanding his deserved fealty as the rightful king of Westeros, will not be satisfied with an arrangement whereby his royal commands must first be approved by a Stark before any acts upon them.

Yet, in objecting to this, he’d be challenging the Stark legacy. Which has reached near mythical status after thousands of years of more or less continuous rule. When the North’s threatened by wildlings or the ironborn, it is the Starks who call the men to arms. A Stark built the Wall and led the fight against the Others. The Starks turned back the invading Andals, the only kingdom of the First Men left standing, but willingly surrendered their crown to the Targaryens to spare their people from dragonfire. They serve their distinct brand of justice to deserters and other criminals. They punish rebellious bannermen, taking hostages when required, and marry into the northern families for alliances. With Winterfell’s heated walls and glass gardens, the Starks probably provide basic necessities (food, shelter) to the smallfolk during the long winters. In countless ways, large and small, the Starks have proven their mettle. So much so that even their age-old enemies, the wildlings, won’t stand to hear Theon Turncloak mouth the Stark words (Theon VII, ADWD).

No southron lord can hope to compete with the idea of the Starks, IMO. With what they’ve come to represent to the northmen through the long association of many generations—protection and stability in hard winter times. Alys Karstark, for one, seeks help from Jon as “the last son of Eddard Stark,” not Stannis, despite Robb beheading her father and the ostensible neutrality of the Night’s Watch (Jon IX, ADWD).

What’s more, the northmen have sworn no vows to Stannis that they’d consider binding. The Grand Northern Conspiracy, if true, predates Stannis’s arrival at the Wall. The Mormonts and Glovers, Manderly, and the other Stark loyalists would’ve acted against the Boltons with or without Stannis. And now, at Winterfell, Stannis is dependent on the northmen who make up the bulk of his army, especially given the attrition of his southern knights.

Then where does that leave Stannis? When a Stark’s in Winterfell again, the northmen could say to him, “We thank you for your aid, Your Grace. Know that the north will ever be open to you and yours. The Iron Throne? It’s that-a-way, and you’re welcome to it. Kill some Lannisters for us!” What could Stannis do about it if the northern lords decline to join his war? Nothing, really.

• 2 years ago (18 notes)

#a song of ice and fire #a dance with dragons #jon snow #the night's watch #the wildlings #meta: the annals of the black bastard Jon Snow in ADWD - Part 6

Major spoilers for A Dance With Dragons and the series as a whole.

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The Case Against Oathbreaking

The Shieldhall as Political Grandstanding

As Bowen Marsh’s “for the Watch” is often interpreted as evidence that Marsh acts against Jon out of duty without regard for Marsh’s previously established characterization, Jon’s speech to the wildlings in the Shieldhall is frequently cited as proof that Jon recognizes his own actions as oathbreaking. I would not be so quick to draw this conclusion, however. What Jon says strikes me as a carefully scripted political gambit to win the wildlings to his cause with words that don’t necessarily reflect his true thoughts. The wildlings are an ideal force for Jon to meet Ramsay with—experienced winter raiders not bound by conventions of noninterference—but they agreed to follow Jon’s lead in fighting the Others, not some lord who they may not even know over a matter that isn’t any of their business. So, Jon’s goal in the Shieldhall is to goad the wildlings into making war on Ramsay.

“I summoned you to make plans for the relief of Hardhome,” Jon Snow began. “Thousands of the free folk are gathered there, trapped and starving, and we have had reports of dead things in the woods.” To his left, he saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders whilst Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him. To his right, Soren Shieldbreaker sat with his arms crossed against his chest. Farther back, Jon saw Gavin the Trader and Harle the Handsome whispering together. Ygon Oldfather sat amongst his wives, Howd Wanderer alone. Borroq leaned against a wall in a dark corner. Mercifully, his boar was nowhere in evidence. “The ships I sent to take off Mother Mole and her people have been wrecked by storms. We must send what help we can by land or let them die.” Two of Queen Selyse’s knights had come, as well, Jon saw. Ser Narbert and Ser Benethon stood near the door at the foot of the hall. But the rest of the queensmen were conspicuous in their absence. “I had hoped to lead the ranging myself and bring back as many of the free folk as could survive the journey.” A flash of red in the back of the hall caught Jon’s eye. Lady Melisandre had arrived. “But now I find I cannot go to Hardhome. The ranging will be led by Tormund Giantsbane, known to you all. I have promised him as many men as he requires.”

“And where will you be, crow?” Borroq thundered. “Hiding here in Castle Black with your white dog?”

“No. I ride south.” Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.

The Shieldhall went mad.

Every man began to shout at once. They leapt to their feet, shaking fists. So much for the calming power of comfortable benches. Swords were brandished, axes smashed against shields. Jon Snow looked to Tormund. The Giantsbane sounded his horn once more, twice as long and twice as loud as the first time.

“The Night’s Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms,” Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. “It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words… but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

"The Night’s Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone unless…” Jon paused. “… Is there any man here who will come stand with me?”

The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer, as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them. No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking, the crime is mine and mine alone. Then Tormund was pounding him on the back, all gap-toothed grin from ear to ear. “Well spoken, crow. Now bring out the mead! Make them yours and get them drunk! That’s how it’s done. We’ll make a wildling o’ you yet, boy. Har!” (Jon XIII, ADWD)

First, note that though Jon says answering Ramsay’s threats with force is forswearing his vows, in his thoughts, he qualifies his actions with a crucial IF, indicating uncertainty about whether what he intends is oathbreaking or not.

Why mention the NW at all then? My theory’s that Jon is playing on the wildlings’ contempt for their age-old enemies, the hated crows, and simultaneously appealing to the free folk’s conception of themselves as warrior heroes. The NW can do nothing to defend innocent women and children from a monster in human skin because of constraints the wildlings are not like to understand or respect. But you, men, can slay this dragon! For the same reason, Jon frames the Pink Letter as a personal challenge, which speaks to the wildlings’ sense of honor and theatrics, despite the fact that Ramsay implicitly threatens the NW, too.

Once the clan chiefs are on their feet roaring their support of Jon, he dismisses Marsh, Yarwyck, and their men as not needed now. Some have taken this as Jon consciously breaking with the NW but, given that both the ranging to Hardhome and march to Winterfell are still in the initial planning stages, I don’t see how that’s possible from a purely practical perspective. Jon can’t very well make good on his promise to reinforce Tormund with as many men as he requires if Jon’s not in command of the NW anymore. Ditto on organizing the necessary supplies for winter travel anywhere.